My results with the Betfair Bandit and Horse Play Lays

Horse Racing Tipsters come and go, it is kind of like our own mortality, inevitable.

The Betfair Bandit is the only tipster I bet right now, and the only one that has provided consistent results.

Now obviously they have slowed down in the months of September and October however the stacking plan has allowed me reasonably good results.

And here is the other thing, my results are much better than those posted using the BSP. You have to respect a tipster who posts conservative results.

For example, back in July he counted a loss for 11 points (staking plan 19.80) because some members did not trade off a particular horse even though I had no problem trading off.

In October the Betfair Bandit reported a loss even though I was profitable. Again, he counted some losses I had no problem avoiding by just following his advice and the rules.

So far since April 1st, I am up 168 points which is over my average monthly target rate of 20 points.

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Sadly HorseLaysPay is no longer. They had a horrendous October and thankfully I was only paper trading.

I give credit to the owner who refunded everyone’s monthly fee 100%.

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Previously I wrote about Jame Fitzmaurice’s Blog so I will have to go check out his site and find another tipster to start testing in December.

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My results so far with the Betfair Bandit

The Betfair Bandit is the only tipster I bet right now, and the only one that has provided consistent results.

So far so good.

And you can see that I have done better than the posted results.

September is off to a rocky start but considering I am up over 157 points I will be forgiving.

I am paper trading a tipster known as HorseLaysPay.

They too are off to a rocky start in September and I will post their results at the end of the month.

Fitz is the Man

I do not recommend horse racing systems lightly, that also applies to other horse racing sites.

But I do recommend James Fitzmaurice’s blog: http://www.jamesfitzmaurice.com/blog/

James tests both bet and lay systems and reports the results to you as well as arranges free trials.

James gave a thumbs down to Paul Fowlie’s “The Place to Lay” system which is interesting in that I rejected Paul’s attempt at selling me that system.

Excellent site.

Some good news, I am up over 20 points so far this month by just using one service, The Betfair Bandit tipster service.

What can I tell you, consistent results since April 1st. The Betfair Bandit is up well over 130 points so far.

Racing Trend Analysis gone wrong

Just recently I received an email from someone attempting to analyze draw biases for Goodwood.

On the surface his racing trend analysis seemed sound and no doubt he thought so.

He cheerfully announced “from 2005 to date there have been 27 races with 11 or more runners contested over the 5 furlong straight and it’s clear that the higher a horse is drawn in a big-field 5 furlong race the more advantaged it is”.

The problem with his analysis is that it assumes that all horses are equal. He made no attempt to correlate the chances of a particular horse winning with their draw position.

For example here is one of his analysis:

5f Wins %
Low 3rd – 6 wins – 22.2%
Mid 3rd – 9 wins – 33.3%
High 3rd – 12 wins – 44.4%
Total 27 races

Would the analysis change if the horses in the top 3rd draws, as a group, on average, had a 70% chance of winning.

One could conclude in such circumstances that there was a distinct disadvantage in a high draw.

In the end his analysis may prove correct without considering the chances of a particular horse winning the race, however his conclusions are based on faulty analysis.

The month of May was both good and bad

First I want to thank those who sent me emails about my last post about odds, even the one that told me I was out to lunch but not in so polite terms. I am doing a follow-up post on odds and value betting later this week, but remember it is ok to post a comment rather than send an email.

My favourite lay tipping service finally had a bad month to the tune of a minus 8.65 points. They have been positive since February 20, 2009 however between May and June their losses have wiped out their profit to date considering the cost of the service.

The good news is I started betting another tipster who I was monitoring for a few months that returned a positive 18 points.

Overall I had a positive month for May, but I did not reach my goal of a plus 20 points for the month.

I have not yet recommended a tipster service. I am close though. I like to monitor a service for at least three months before I recommend them. The one that had a positive return for me last month has been positive for both months I have been monitoring them and is up over 12 points so far this month. Look for a review in early July.

Even though I still do not recommend the Betfair Pirates I do cheer for them. I am always hoping to find a free service that returns a positive return, and I am not talking about their positive posted results. Both April and May were losers for me based on what I would have bet. Betfair Pirates report their results based on the Industry SP which is just plain misleading.

As I have mentioned before, I like Paul Fowlie, author of Dodgy Favouites. The problem is that Dodgy Favourites has been a consistent loser since I began monitoring it back on February 18th. Dodgy was positive in April but not enough to be positive overall. As of today Dodgy is a minus 4.21 overall.

Paul’s new Dodgy Fav’s two has been even a bigger loser, so much so that he has started to back filter the results to try and savage it. He now filters out any races where the starting price is less than 3.5. Problem is that since I started monitoring it back in March he is a minus 53 points overall and a minus 18 points in June since the new rules.

But I am still pulling for Paul to sort it out as I am more than willing to pay for a service that produces consistent results.