The month of May was both good and bad

First I want to thank those who sent me emails about my last post about odds, even the one that told me I was out to lunch but not in so polite terms. I am doing a follow-up post on odds and value betting later this week, but remember it is ok to post a comment rather than send an email.

My favourite lay tipping service finally had a bad month to the tune of a minus 8.65 points. They have been positive since February 20, 2009 however between May and June their losses have wiped out their profit to date considering the cost of the service.

The good news is I started betting another tipster who I was monitoring for a few months that returned a positive 18 points.

Overall I had a positive month for May, but I did not reach my goal of a plus 20 points for the month.

I have not yet recommended a tipster service. I am close though. I like to monitor a service for at least three months before I recommend them. The one that had a positive return for me last month has been positive for both months I have been monitoring them and is up over 12 points so far this month. Look for a review in early July.

Even though I still do not recommend the Betfair Pirates I do cheer for them. I am always hoping to find a free service that returns a positive return, and I am not talking about their positive posted results. Both April and May were losers for me based on what I would have bet. Betfair Pirates report their results based on the Industry SP which is just plain misleading.

As I have mentioned before, I like Paul Fowlie, author of Dodgy Favouites. The problem is that Dodgy Favourites has been a consistent loser since I began monitoring it back on February 18th. Dodgy was positive in April but not enough to be positive overall. As of today Dodgy is a minus 4.21 overall.

Paul’s new Dodgy Fav’s two has been even a bigger loser, so much so that he has started to back filter the results to try and savage it. He now filters out any races where the starting price is less than 3.5. Problem is that since I started monitoring it back in March he is a minus 53 points overall and a minus 18 points in June since the new rules.

But I am still pulling for Paul to sort it out as I am more than willing to pay for a service that produces consistent results.

The odd nature of betting the horses

Odds are funny things.

They do not care about you or me.

They only care about their destination.

They may take a detour once in awhile but they always end up where they are suppose to go.

To be lucky is just to be on the favourable detour, and believe it or not you do not want to be lucky.

To be lucky means you do not know what you are doing.

The successful gambler is never lucky or unlucky.  They just know the odds.

There are many horse racing systems out there but many, if not all, have the same thing in common.  They are just trend analysis.

They look at the past hoping to see the future.

They use criteria to filter current form cards based on the analysis of the past.

But let’s say that someone actually created a system to calculate the odds of a horse winning a particular race.

This system is like the cagey gambler who always seems to be one step ahead.

This system does not have to be perfect because we can add a fudge factor.

So how would this system work.

First, every race is analysed and odds are attached to each horse.  This analysis is methodical in that all horses are evaluated based on their abilities and past form compared to that of all of the other horses in the race.

Then with this truck load of odds you head down to your favourite bookie or logon to your favourite exchange.

And you watch and wait.

What are you waiting for?

You are waiting until a favourable opportunity presents itself.

If you like to bet a horse to win then you wait until the betting odds are greater than the odds calculated for a particular horse. This is where you may want to add a fudge factor just to be conservative.  The fudge factor prevents you from betting every race.

If you like to lay a horse, then just wait until the betting odds are less than your calculated odds.

If you always bet this way then in the long run you will be profitable.

Let’s say that you figure a horse has a 5/1 chance to win and the current betting odds is 9/1.  You have an opportunity.

Of course the odds are that the horse will lose but if you bet enough of these over time you will come out a head.

The better you are at identifying opportunities the more you will make.

The problem is that this system does not exist, or at least a system that can produce true odds.

The cagey professional gambler does exist and they are not telling you the odds that they know through experience.

What you are left with is a bunch of tipsters who are not making their money betting the horses, they are making their money from you.

Kind of makes you think, well at least it makes me think.

In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb, and April freagin Sucks!

Of course I am talking about the free Betfair Pirates tipping service.

I updated my review of their horse racing system so if you want to see the sad stats just click on the Reviews Tab above.

Luckily I do not bet their tips.

For me, I am just betting one tipping service this month and I am up 5.66 points. I will be doing a review of them at the end of the month as they have been very good to me. All I ask of a service is to average a net 5 points a month. Not a lot to ask.

This means that in the long run I am looking for 4 to 5 tipsters or systems that I can rely on. Some may lose for the month but as long as they are consistent and not too risky in their selections I will be happy. My goal is just to average 20 points a month.

Tomorrow I will be publishing my review of Max Redd’s service. If you have been following this blog you will know that I think Max lives in fantasy land when it comes to posting his results.

This month I have been monitoring the two Dodgy Systems by Paul Fowlie.

Dodgy One has been a loser since I purchased the system on February 18th. The system is positive so far in April so let’s hope this is a turning point. I have only been following the UK horse racing scene since the beginning of this year so I am not yet familiar enough with their seasonal trends. I am pulling for Paul because I like a guy who actually bets his own tips.

I only have access to Paul’s Tips for Dodgy Two, not the system itself. So far it has been a loser to the tune of minus 19 points for April based on what I would have bet. It is a system I hope Paul works the kinks out of as it does pick low cost favourites to lose, thus less risky. The problem is that he is picking too many races per day.

I am testing a new system that involves reading the form using four criteria. So far the system is showing a plus 15 points for April, rather impressive. I have high expectations of this system because the criteria make sense. If you follow a system where the criteria do not make logical sense, like betting on a horse to lose if the jockey has bad teeth, then the odds will catch up with you. A friend actually came up with the criteria for me. It is not based on back testing and filtering out results until you have a winner. I may eventually post the picks for the readers here.

I have lots of reviews from last month that I need to double check the results and stats before I publish them.

A final note.

Since February 23rd, if you bet the favourite in UK races, with a minimum bet of 1 point and subsequent bets to recoup any loses until you win with an overall 1 point for the day, you would be up 78 points after deducting the Betfair commission.

Of course this system can blow up on you in one day.

The agony of defeat at the Grand National

Tomorrow is the running of the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree.

This is a race of endurance, so what more fitting than a video of the 1973 race where Crisp led from the first fence until the very end. Red Rum overcame a huge lead to make a gallant push at the end.

I actually felt tired after watching this.

Beware the Tides of March

or March Madness Horse Racing System of Systems.

My final tally for March is a plus 5.69 points.

Now compare that to February’s plus 20.

Even today I was a plus 3 points.

So total so far is a plus 28.69 points over 2 months.

Since each point is 1% of my bank that represents 172% return on my bank, not bad, but not good enough.

My long-term plan is to average 20 points a month. My model allows for really bad months and really good months, as long as the average is 20 points a month, so two months in I am not worried.

During the month of March I was tracking over 15 systems, a lot of work, some for over two months. Out of all of those I was only betting two paid systems. One returned me 10.60 points while the other lost 4.91. The paid service that lost for the month actually refunded my monthly fee, what class.

So what does all this means?

It means I have a lot of posts and reviews to get ready over the next week.

The good news for me is that I will only be tracking about a quarter of the systems I monitored in March.

Here is an interesting fact, since February 23rd if you bet the fav until you won on UK races only you would be up 56 points. The rules are to bet the favourite, minimum bet 1 point, subsequent bets just enough to earn 1 point overall.

More about this later in the week.