Ouch, the pain of a losing day

I have been hovering around a plus 10 for the last few days and then bam, down to 6.24.

The ironic thing is that the horse racing system that caused the big loss is one that I plan on discontinuing at the end of the month.

They want almost 50 pounds a month for just a few tips a month. I am currently trying their free trial, but I canceled the recurring charge before the next payment. Too bad they did not cancel my free trial.

I suppose if you are betting 100 pounds per bet they might be worthwhile, but for now I have to pass on them.

To be fair their tips have resulted in exactly zero points so far this month, so you get what you pay for.

Happy St. Patrick’s day from a confessed UK Horse Racing fanatic

Today is the day that everyone is Irish and the tradition is to drink green beer.

If I was given a choice on where I could be today I think it would be in Boston to take in the St. Patrick’s Parade.

A few years ago I attended the parade in New York City.

It was a cool, crisp day and we managed a fantastic viewpoint along 5th Avenue.

I think the whole city took the day off. Everywhere there were masses of people.

Later, the best we could do is standing room only in one of the local Irish Pubs.

One day I would actually love to celebrate in Ireland at the Down Royal Race Track.

Today was a good day for me on Betfair.com , up two points.

So far I am on target for the month.

This is month one of forty eight in my millionaire plan.

Gotta start somewhere.

The Luck of the Irish

If you believed in the Luck of the Irish then your horse racing system would be to only bet on Irish horses.

I have no doubt someone has tried to back test such systems and then sell it to unwary betters.

Some believe that there are two kinds of luck, good luck and bad luck.

We all want good luck.

We dream about being able to pick the 30-1 long shot that wins by a nose.

We all want to avoid bad luck.

Who doesn’t.

Myself, I do not care about good luck and I am not afraid of bad luck.

I am indifferent.

I do not lose sleep over it.

My heart does not race when a lay bet is about to win the race, even at 8 to 1.

Why.

Because I have a plan.

Because I minimize risk (bad luck) by following that plan.

Does this make sense?

More thoughts on this in my next post.

I am not a professional gambler

I am not a professional gambler.

I have no idea who the trainers are, the horses, or even the racing locations.

To me Kempton Park is kemp, the Cheltenham Festival is just another music concert and laying is well, laying.

When I hear all weather I think astro turf, preferably green.

I recently used the word “dodgy” in a conversation about some financials.

But somehow I am up 10.66 points this month.

Yeh, I know, so what, boring as an accountant.

Accountants have perceived characteristics: conservative, methodical, consistent, boring.

Personally in my real life I have no discipline, and am a bit lazy.

I am patient though.

Consider what gambling characteristics you need to be successful.

Discipline, Patience, Consistency

Consider what characteristics you need to avoid.

Greed, Laziness, Too Emotional

Horse Racing System Symmetry Syndrome

What the heck do I mean by Horse Racing System Symmetry Syndrome or HRSSS?

First of all it can be very painful, in fact excruciating.

Second, we all are guilty of it on one way or another.

So nothing to be ashamed of.

Today I only had one bet. It was late in the day and if it lost I would have effectively lost all of my gains so far this month.

I saw symmetry in that and was sure I would lose the bet.

However I relied on my discipline to bet anyways.

It takes discipline to stick to a system.

It also takes discipline to follow a plan.

My plan is to evaluate on paper any new systems for a month before I bet live.

If the system has a bad month no big deal. I will then evaluate it for another month.

But it takes extreme discipline not to jump on a system that just had a great week.

If you do, and not stick to your plan, then you end up trying to cherry pick the latest, hottest system.

If a hot system, for the first time, just had two losses in a row that does not mean that it will win the next time.

Sometimes we think that a system that has produced good numbers in the past will overcome two losses in a row.

We think that there is no way the system will suffer three losses in a row.

When you start to look for symmetry and bet accordingly you will suffer.

There is no symmetry in horse racing.

I know.