My Horse Racing System Sucks
First, my horse racing system sucks!
Second, I know nothing about the United Kingdom horse racing scene.
In my previous posts a chance encounter with an English punter aroused my curiosity.
I registered with Betfair.com and have been using his daily horse racing tip that he gets from using the Factor 4 horse racing system.
However today I have not been able to hook up with him so I am sort off wandering around Betfair by myself lost.
I started the day at $141.50 went as high as $216.68 and am now currently at $165.19.
Remember, this is my second day of betting and I started with a stake of $98.50 (initial deposit of $100 less credit card fee).
So far that is a return of 68% over two days.
I started to fool around with trying to arbitrage my bets, that is have a bet structured that I can only win and not lose.
Here is an example:
2009-01-21 12:18 GB Wolv 21st Jan / 12:20 7f Hcap / A Big Sky Brewing Lay 8.08 10.00 Won 10.00 153.98
2009-01-21 11:59 GB Wolv 21st Jan / 12:20 7f Hcap / A Big Sky Brewing Back 10.78 10.00 Lost (10.00) 143.98
Why would I do this.
If Big Sky Brewing won I would have won around $90 on a $10 bet. But I was not very confident and in the end he did not win.
So as I was watching the board at Betfair I noticed that his odds were dropping and I could now place a lay bet. If he did win my combined bet would net me over $30 but if he lost I would break-even. Since I was not confident of my initial bet I went for it.
I was confident enough that he would place so I also placed a $10 bet and netted $11.80.
I did not have confidence because I was not using a horse racing system.
I lost big time on the 4:00 Musselburgh Race.
Here are the results:
4:00 – Musselburgh
3 Hunters Belt 16/1
10 Alvarado 17/2
2 Doc Wells 33/1
You can see that all long-shots placed and up to now I was making money placing the favourites or using the arbitrage trick.
As I write this I am waiting for the 8.50 Kempton race to start. Looking at the board I see another arbitrage opportunity but I only have a $10 bet netting $35 so I m going to let it ride. I have Greenwich Village based on a horse racing tip from the Betfair newsletter.
Good news, he won, so my ending balance today is $198.44, a 100% return on my money in two days.
So I guess I can say it still is a good day at the races even though my horse racing system sucks.
