Betfair Pirates Review: Free Lay Tips
Horse Racing System Review
Period tracked: January 22, 2009 to February 28, 2009
Website: http://www.betfair-pirates.co.uk/
The Stats
Assumption: 1 Point = 1% of Bank
Total Tips: 53
Total Losing Horses: 49
Total Winning Horses: 4
Strike Rate: 92.45%
Biggest loss: -8.04 Points
Average Betfair SP: 10.40
Maximum Betfair SP: 24.22
Minimum Betfair SP: 3.44
Median Betfair SP: 9.35
Overall Profit using Betfair SP and 5% commission: 18.38 Points
Overall Profit for Maximum Betfair SP 11.00 (10/1): 3.18 Points
Comments
As you can see Betfair Pirates Free Lay Tips is profitable but very risky.
Can you imagine betting on a horse using 23% of your bank just to earn 1 Point?
However, they have returned a healthy profit if you have the guts to bet the high liability horses.
If you took the less risky horses (max SP 11.00) the profits drops to 3.18 Points, nothing to write home about.
It was a bit ironic that on the last day of the review period the last horse they picked won with a loss of 9.04 points.
Ironic because it emphasizes how risky their picks are and how risky laying horses is.
I have signed up for their paid Sovereign service for the month of March, 2009, hopefully the laying odds are lower.
Update – March 13, 2009
Betfair Pirates is having a nightmare March.
Or are their high liabilities finally catching up to them.
I show them at a -34 so far this month using the Betfair SP.
They show a -22.5 using the official Starting price and no Betfair commission.
I am starting to sour on these guys.
First because they are not using the Betfair SP to provide comparability.
Second, they use the Official SP just to gain on average a 20%+ over other systems posting results using the BSP.
and finally, because of their commentary for March 12th
Today may be Friday 13th, but the blood-bath was yesterday at Cheltenham! Three winners out of six we highlighted would lose, and 17 points wiped off the account. Sometimes we get a little smug when we have thirty consecutive losers, but days like yesterday can bring you back down to earth with a thud.
I am not sure when they had thirty consecutive losers, certainly not since I started monitoring back on January 22nd.
In fact since I started monitoring them they are a -16 using the BSP.
Not a good record for 50 days of betting.
Update – April 13, 2009
So for the Pirates are having a brutal April.
I am show an overall loss for the month at minus 24.11 verses their posted loss of minus 15.40. If I adjust their number by the Betfair commission their loss goes up to minus 16.33. The difference between results is that I use the Betfair SP while they use the official SP, known as ISP in the Betfair results.
They have not yet published their totals for March.
As of today these are the stats:
April using BSP: -24.11
April using ISP: -16.33
Since February 22nd using BSP: -34.51
See the difference when you use ISP over the BSP to measure your results. Plus during the month they do not deduct the Betfair commission.
I think by the end of April I will stop monitoring them and I will post my results based on the following:
1. using BSP
2. using ISP
3. based on what my bet would have been
However my recommendation is still the same, too risky.
Update – June 28, 2009
Just a quick update
Using a Price obtained a few hours before the off
April 2009 – minus 7.15
May 2009 – minus 3.55
June 2009 – minus 9.85
Using the BSP
April 2009 – plus 0.61
May 2009 – plus 2.28
June 2009 – minus 12.18
Using the ISP (this is how the Betfair Pirates report their results)
April 2009 – plus 11.92
May 2009 – plus 10.85
June 2009 – minus 0.5
What do they results mean?
First, the BP’s losing bets tend to shorten in price quite a bit
Second, reporting the results using the ISP is misleading, but to their benefit.
Current Recommendation: avoid like the plague!
10 Comments
Sarah on May 26th, 2009
Good work, keep it up. Just a point of conjecture which anyone else reading may like to comment upon – using BSP will always show a laying service in a poor light compared to official SP, granted. That is because BSP is invariably higher than SP (although not always with a 20% margin as you suggest, this is an over-used average which Betfair have touted to gain business since they launched). The point is NEITHER give an accurate measure of performance UNLESS you are actually betting at the Off time. My experience with the Betfair Pirates selections is that they tend to drift throughout the day, and if you bet earlier in the day you will often find yourself betting even BELOW official SP. Any experienced punter will not need reminding that laying below SP is a pretty good way of making money! So your report is fine if people can only bet at the time of the race, but potentially mis-leading to those who could take the opportunity of laying drifting horses (and perhaps locking in profit by trading) earlier in the day and making a profit. Just my tuppenny worth of opinion.
Peter Fuller on June 3rd, 2009
Your opinion is always welcome 
I have been tracking Betfair Pirates since January 22nd and my numbers show that for losing bets the price tends to shorten.
They are showing a profit of 9 points for May while I show a loss of 1 point using the BSP and a loss of 8 points using prices chosen about an hour before the off.
The differences are significant.
I have been tracking another service since April 1st that actually sends out updates and recommends trading off horses that have drifted significantly. I will post results soon.
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Sarah on July 17th, 2009
Hi Peter, I thought I’d try an experiment based upon your findings. I’ve been backing the Betfair Pirates selections (ie doing the opposite). Only min stakes £2 a time mind. I’ve just finished a month and I’m quite well down!! 
( So I don’t know what to think now? You say no-one should lay their selections, yet when I’ve done the opposite and backed for winners I’ve lost money. Surely if my theory was correct then I would have made a profit? I’m going to carry on for another month in case it was just a good month for the pirates. What do you think I am doing wrong?
Peter Fuller on July 22nd, 2009
If a laying system is losing it does not mean that you can just start betting the selections to win.
What I do suggest is to trade their selections. Get in early when they first post their picks and then trade off. If the horse drifts you make a profit. I have found that more than 50% of their picks do drift and if the do shorten it happens very close to the off.
I finally stopped tracking them on July 10th.
They had a terrible June 29th and ended up with a reported loss of minus 11 using the ISP. Right now they are reporting a plus 5 for July using the ISP so that tells me that at best they are even or losing in reality.
Sarah on September 15th, 2009
Peter, By definition I would have to disagree with your last comment. If I lay a series of bets, and lose money, then there will have been corresponding punters matched with a win bet. If I lost, it follows they won. They will have won the money that I lost. Or am I missing something here?
The pirates have sent out their results for August and they made a profit. I guess at the end of the day, some months they win, some months they lose. Show me a service that wins all the time every month. )
I’m tempted to try their subscription service sovereign which has an offer at the mo. It’s supposed to be just short price favourites, so BSP should be a lot closer to SP. Have you tried it (for any significant length of time)? Bests.
Peter Fuller on September 15th, 2009
What you are missing is that there is a spread between a Win Bet and a Lay Bet, plus the 5%.
If you were just about to place a Lay Bet but decided at the last second to change it to a Win Bet, would you get the same price?
Of course you could put in an offer price, but there will be people ahead of you and there is no guarantee you will get the price you want.
As for the Betfair Pirates, all I can say is that anyone who uses the ISP to post their results are trying to manipulate you
gdahustla on September 16th, 2009
So has anyone joined the Sovereign service and got any results for previous months?
Peter Fuller on September 16th, 2009
I tried their free trial a few months a go but it turned out to be a bad month for them.
After that I was not willing to pay their monthly fee to find out more.
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