In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb, and April freagin Sucks!

Of course I am talking about the free Betfair Pirates tipping service.

I updated my review of their horse racing system so if you want to see the sad stats just click on the Reviews Tab above.

Luckily I do not bet their tips.

For me, I am just betting one tipping service this month and I am up 5.66 points. I will be doing a review of them at the end of the month as they have been very good to me. All I ask of a service is to average a net 5 points a month. Not a lot to ask.

This means that in the long run I am looking for 4 to 5 tipsters or systems that I can rely on. Some may lose for the month but as long as they are consistent and not too risky in their selections I will be happy. My goal is just to average 20 points a month.

Tomorrow I will be publishing my review of Max Redd’s service. If you have been following this blog you will know that I think Max lives in fantasy land when it comes to posting his results.

This month I have been monitoring the two Dodgy Systems by Paul Fowlie.

Dodgy One has been a loser since I purchased the system on February 18th. The system is positive so far in April so let’s hope this is a turning point. I have only been following the UK horse racing scene since the beginning of this year so I am not yet familiar enough with their seasonal trends. I am pulling for Paul because I like a guy who actually bets his own tips.

I only have access to Paul’s Tips for Dodgy Two, not the system itself. So far it has been a loser to the tune of minus 19 points for April based on what I would have bet. It is a system I hope Paul works the kinks out of as it does pick low cost favourites to lose, thus less risky. The problem is that he is picking too many races per day.

I am testing a new system that involves reading the form using four criteria. So far the system is showing a plus 15 points for April, rather impressive. I have high expectations of this system because the criteria make sense. If you follow a system where the criteria do not make logical sense, like betting on a horse to lose if the jockey has bad teeth, then the odds will catch up with you. A friend actually came up with the criteria for me. It is not based on back testing and filtering out results until you have a winner. I may eventually post the picks for the readers here.

I have lots of reviews from last month that I need to double check the results and stats before I publish them.

A final note.

Since February 23rd, if you bet the favourite in UK races, with a minimum bet of 1 point and subsequent bets to recoup any loses until you win with an overall 1 point for the day, you would be up 78 points after deducting the Betfair commission.

Of course this system can blow up on you in one day.

Horse Racing System Symmetry Syndrome

What the heck do I mean by Horse Racing System Symmetry Syndrome or HRSSS?

First of all it can be very painful, in fact excruciating.

Second, we all are guilty of it on one way or another.

So nothing to be ashamed of.

Today I only had one bet. It was late in the day and if it lost I would have effectively lost all of my gains so far this month.

I saw symmetry in that and was sure I would lose the bet.

However I relied on my discipline to bet anyways.

It takes discipline to stick to a system.

It also takes discipline to follow a plan.

My plan is to evaluate on paper any new systems for a month before I bet live.

If the system has a bad month no big deal. I will then evaluate it for another month.

But it takes extreme discipline not to jump on a system that just had a great week.

If you do, and not stick to your plan, then you end up trying to cherry pick the latest, hottest system.

If a hot system, for the first time, just had two losses in a row that does not mean that it will win the next time.

Sometimes we think that a system that has produced good numbers in the past will overcome two losses in a row.

We think that there is no way the system will suffer three losses in a row.

When you start to look for symmetry and bet accordingly you will suffer.

There is no symmetry in horse racing.

I know.

Betting Discipline March update: 7 for 7

So far so good.

I am up a 6.66 points 4 days into March.

The goal for the month is 20.

Now, this might not sound too exciting, big deal right?

Well, this represents a 873.40% return on my bank.

Betting Discipline is the number one quality required to be successful in betting a horse racing system.

March Madness is off to a slow start

No bets today.

Zippo, none!

It took everything in my soul not to bet.

So March Madness is off to a slow start.

This is how discipline works.

I have chosen three horse racing systems to use for the month of March. However I am still tracking other systems on paper.

With no picks from the chosen three it would have been very easy just to grab one from one of the others.

I didn’t.

Manipulation of Horse Racing System results by well known Gambler

I have been tracking some horse racing systems and have been actually betting one that had an impressive three year plus history.

Here’s the rub though.

Since I have been tracking his system he is not reporting his results accurately.

First, he recommends both bets and lays at minimum or maximum prices.

He sends his recommendations out every morning and I place my bets within 15 minutes of receiving his email.

One day he recommends a 10 point lay at a maximum price. I have no problem placing and matching a bet below his recommended price.

The horse wins.

Next day he does not report the 10 point loss. He recommended a maximum price of 2.5, I managed to get 2. The Betfair SP was 2.9.

I emailed him and he responds that of course his results will differ from mine. He consults those who are paying for his service and based on averages if more than 50% do not get the bet placed he does not count it. He states that this also applies to winning bets.

Woa!!!!!!

If you think about this his posted results are not reliable.

In fact I believe the Betfair SP was his deciding factor

The services that just post lays use the SP to report their results. This makes sense.

However this gambler suggests to take his recommendations, place your bets and if they are not matched no big deal.

Given this strategy he has to include all bets if they could have been matched, not if some of his followers do not get their bets in time.

Right now he is reporting a positive 5 day gain of 6.12 points but I am suffering a -6.6 loss.

Not good.

Plus it totally invalidates his posted historical results.

The question is how many suggested bets has he not included.

The gambler in question, Max Redd.

Here is a quote from an email he sent me.

Another important point to note is that the results posted on the Results page are not my own personal figures, but a general consensus of bets matched by members.

In response to previous suggestions for a fair and accurate way to record the available prices on my selections, I have asked a group of long-term members to send me their results each day. Where a selection has been matched at my suggested price or better, by more than 50% of members, then this will appear on my results at the average price matched by those members. If only a small number of members, or indeed no-one gets matched at the advised price, then the selection will not appear on the results, whether it wins or loses.

So his results are not really his results but rather based on averages of the betting patterns of his followers.

Max Redd may know a lot about horse racing systems but he does not have a clue about how to report his results fairly.

His system requires that if his recommendations could have been matched from the time he recommends them up to race time then they have to be counted.

This is based on the fact that he recommends to place your bets at his recommended prices and then go and do something else.

Here is a quote from his website:

The good news is that you can make excellent profits by simply betting my selections at minimum advised prices. Log-in to your betting exchange account when you receive my daily message, and submit all your bets at your required prices. You can then leave all your bets to be matched, without having to sit at your PC screen all afternoon. Nothing could be simpler. Any bets that do not get matched will automatically be cancelled, leaving you only with good value bets.

Conclusion, buyer beware.