I have been tracking some horse racing systems and have been actually betting one that had an impressive three year plus history.
Here’s the rub though.
Since I have been tracking his system he is not reporting his results accurately.
First, he recommends both bets and lays at minimum or maximum prices.
He sends his recommendations out every morning and I place my bets within 15 minutes of receiving his email.
One day he recommends a 10 point lay at a maximum price. I have no problem placing and matching a bet below his recommended price.
The horse wins.
Next day he does not report the 10 point loss. He recommended a maximum price of 2.5, I managed to get 2. The Betfair SP was 2.9.
I emailed him and he responds that of course his results will differ from mine. He consults those who are paying for his service and based on averages if more than 50% do not get the bet placed he does not count it. He states that this also applies to winning bets.
Woa!!!!!!
If you think about this his posted results are not reliable.
In fact I believe the Betfair SP was his deciding factor
The services that just post lays use the SP to report their results. This makes sense.
However this gambler suggests to take his recommendations, place your bets and if they are not matched no big deal.
Given this strategy he has to include all bets if they could have been matched, not if some of his followers do not get their bets in time.
Right now he is reporting a positive 5 day gain of 6.12 points but I am suffering a -6.6 loss.
Not good.
Plus it totally invalidates his posted historical results.
The question is how many suggested bets has he not included.
The gambler in question, Max Redd.
Here is a quote from an email he sent me.
Another important point to note is that the results posted on the Results page are not my own personal figures, but a general consensus of bets matched by members.
In response to previous suggestions for a fair and accurate way to record the available prices on my selections, I have asked a group of long-term members to send me their results each day. Where a selection has been matched at my suggested price or better, by more than 50% of members, then this will appear on my results at the average price matched by those members. If only a small number of members, or indeed no-one gets matched at the advised price, then the selection will not appear on the results, whether it wins or loses.
So his results are not really his results but rather based on averages of the betting patterns of his followers.
Max Redd may know a lot about horse racing systems but he does not have a clue about how to report his results fairly.
His system requires that if his recommendations could have been matched from the time he recommends them up to race time then they have to be counted.
This is based on the fact that he recommends to place your bets at his recommended prices and then go and do something else.
Here is a quote from his website:
The good news is that you can make excellent profits by simply betting my selections at minimum advised prices. Log-in to your betting exchange account when you receive my daily message, and submit all your bets at your required prices. You can then leave all your bets to be matched, without having to sit at your PC screen all afternoon. Nothing could be simpler. Any bets that do not get matched will automatically be cancelled, leaving you only with good value bets.
Conclusion, buyer beware.
