Horse Racing System Symmetry Syndrome

What the heck do I mean by Horse Racing System Symmetry Syndrome or HRSSS?

First of all it can be very painful, in fact excruciating.

Second, we all are guilty of it on one way or another.

So nothing to be ashamed of.

Today I only had one bet. It was late in the day and if it lost I would have effectively lost all of my gains so far this month.

I saw symmetry in that and was sure I would lose the bet.

However I relied on my discipline to bet anyways.

It takes discipline to stick to a system.

It also takes discipline to follow a plan.

My plan is to evaluate on paper any new systems for a month before I bet live.

If the system has a bad month no big deal. I will then evaluate it for another month.

But it takes extreme discipline not to jump on a system that just had a great week.

If you do, and not stick to your plan, then you end up trying to cherry pick the latest, hottest system.

If a hot system, for the first time, just had two losses in a row that does not mean that it will win the next time.

Sometimes we think that a system that has produced good numbers in the past will overcome two losses in a row.

We think that there is no way the system will suffer three losses in a row.

When you start to look for symmetry and bet accordingly you will suffer.

There is no symmetry in horse racing.

I know.

Betting Discipline March update: 7 for 7

So far so good.

I am up a 6.66 points 4 days into March.

The goal for the month is 20.

Now, this might not sound too exciting, big deal right?

Well, this represents a 873.40% return on my bank.

Betting Discipline is the number one quality required to be successful in betting a horse racing system.

February 2009 is done and I am up 20 Points

I deposited $200 at Betfair.com to test various horse racing systems for the month of February.

Tomorrow I will start to post my results with the various systems.

My bank at the end of today was exactly $400. I ended the day by betting a long-shot that would leave me up exactly 20 points if it did not pan out, and of course it did not.

My goal was to learn as much as possible and I was not worried about losing the $200. At one time I was above $700.

However, I wanted to get a few bad habits out of my system.

I picked random horses to lay, usually the third to fifth favoured horse. I got burned big time doing this.

I would bet undisciplined trying to pick which system would be the winner on the day.

I would think that the next bet is a sure thing based on the systems previous bets that day. I quickly learned that past results have no bearing on the next race. There is no symmetry in the horse racing world.

I learned that there are some out there who are very good at filtering past results to produce a horse racing system that looks good on paper but sucks big time. Of course these are the guys who usually sell their system for you to apply.

I learned that it is not easy to average 20 points a month.

So I deposited $300 in my Betfair account to start my official betting career with a bank of $700 (officially $695.50 due to cc fees).

I am going to bet like I have a $1,000 bank, that is 1 point equals $10.

At the end of every month I will revise my point value up or down based on results for the month.

For example, if I am up 20 points my next month’s point value will be $12.

Here is to betting discipline and a plan.