Fitz is the Man

I do not recommend horse racing systems lightly, that also applies to other horse racing sites.

But I do recommend James Fitzmaurice’s blog: http://www.jamesfitzmaurice.com/blog/

James tests both bet and lay systems and reports the results to you as well as arranges free trials.

James gave a thumbs down to Paul Fowlie’s “The Place to Lay” system which is interesting in that I rejected Paul’s attempt at selling me that system.

Excellent site.

Some good news, I am up over 20 points so far this month by just using one service, The Betfair Bandit tipster service.

What can I tell you, consistent results since April 1st. The Betfair Bandit is up well over 130 points so far.

The secret to my success so far, someone else’s horse racing system

Since I started this blog so far I have tried a lot of systems and tipsters. No one stood out until now.

The tipster, The Betfair Bandit

While other tipsters were inconsistent and losing me money, the Betfair Bandit to date has provided me over 78 points betting level stakes and 100 points using the stacking plan.

If I had limited myself just to his tips I would have achieved my 20 points average per month.

And here is the other thing, whenever he posted a loss I always did better.

How?

He gives out target prices and encourage you to get in early rather than wait until the off.

If a pick starts to go bad he will email you to trade-off.

So as of today he reports a 72 point profit I actually have closer to 79 points.

I like that.

So this is my first recommendation.

I will post a more detailed review on the weekend and post it in the review section.

For now check out The Betfair Bandit

p.s notice no affiliate code in the link

The odd nature of betting the horses

Odds are funny things.

They do not care about you or me.

They only care about their destination.

They may take a detour once in awhile but they always end up where they are suppose to go.

To be lucky is just to be on the favourable detour, and believe it or not you do not want to be lucky.

To be lucky means you do not know what you are doing.

The successful gambler is never lucky or unlucky.  They just know the odds.

There are many horse racing systems out there but many, if not all, have the same thing in common.  They are just trend analysis.

They look at the past hoping to see the future.

They use criteria to filter current form cards based on the analysis of the past.

But let’s say that someone actually created a system to calculate the odds of a horse winning a particular race.

This system is like the cagey gambler who always seems to be one step ahead.

This system does not have to be perfect because we can add a fudge factor.

So how would this system work.

First, every race is analysed and odds are attached to each horse.  This analysis is methodical in that all horses are evaluated based on their abilities and past form compared to that of all of the other horses in the race.

Then with this truck load of odds you head down to your favourite bookie or logon to your favourite exchange.

And you watch and wait.

What are you waiting for?

You are waiting until a favourable opportunity presents itself.

If you like to bet a horse to win then you wait until the betting odds are greater than the odds calculated for a particular horse. This is where you may want to add a fudge factor just to be conservative.  The fudge factor prevents you from betting every race.

If you like to lay a horse, then just wait until the betting odds are less than your calculated odds.

If you always bet this way then in the long run you will be profitable.

Let’s say that you figure a horse has a 5/1 chance to win and the current betting odds is 9/1.  You have an opportunity.

Of course the odds are that the horse will lose but if you bet enough of these over time you will come out a head.

The better you are at identifying opportunities the more you will make.

The problem is that this system does not exist, or at least a system that can produce true odds.

The cagey professional gambler does exist and they are not telling you the odds that they know through experience.

What you are left with is a bunch of tipsters who are not making their money betting the horses, they are making their money from you.

Kind of makes you think, well at least it makes me think.

In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb, and April freagin Sucks!

Of course I am talking about the free Betfair Pirates tipping service.

I updated my review of their horse racing system so if you want to see the sad stats just click on the Reviews Tab above.

Luckily I do not bet their tips.

For me, I am just betting one tipping service this month and I am up 5.66 points. I will be doing a review of them at the end of the month as they have been very good to me. All I ask of a service is to average a net 5 points a month. Not a lot to ask.

This means that in the long run I am looking for 4 to 5 tipsters or systems that I can rely on. Some may lose for the month but as long as they are consistent and not too risky in their selections I will be happy. My goal is just to average 20 points a month.

Tomorrow I will be publishing my review of Max Redd’s service. If you have been following this blog you will know that I think Max lives in fantasy land when it comes to posting his results.

This month I have been monitoring the two Dodgy Systems by Paul Fowlie.

Dodgy One has been a loser since I purchased the system on February 18th. The system is positive so far in April so let’s hope this is a turning point. I have only been following the UK horse racing scene since the beginning of this year so I am not yet familiar enough with their seasonal trends. I am pulling for Paul because I like a guy who actually bets his own tips.

I only have access to Paul’s Tips for Dodgy Two, not the system itself. So far it has been a loser to the tune of minus 19 points for April based on what I would have bet. It is a system I hope Paul works the kinks out of as it does pick low cost favourites to lose, thus less risky. The problem is that he is picking too many races per day.

I am testing a new system that involves reading the form using four criteria. So far the system is showing a plus 15 points for April, rather impressive. I have high expectations of this system because the criteria make sense. If you follow a system where the criteria do not make logical sense, like betting on a horse to lose if the jockey has bad teeth, then the odds will catch up with you. A friend actually came up with the criteria for me. It is not based on back testing and filtering out results until you have a winner. I may eventually post the picks for the readers here.

I have lots of reviews from last month that I need to double check the results and stats before I publish them.

A final note.

Since February 23rd, if you bet the favourite in UK races, with a minimum bet of 1 point and subsequent bets to recoup any loses until you win with an overall 1 point for the day, you would be up 78 points after deducting the Betfair commission.

Of course this system can blow up on you in one day.

Beware the Tides of March

or March Madness Horse Racing System of Systems.

My final tally for March is a plus 5.69 points.

Now compare that to February’s plus 20.

Even today I was a plus 3 points.

So total so far is a plus 28.69 points over 2 months.

Since each point is 1% of my bank that represents 172% return on my bank, not bad, but not good enough.

My long-term plan is to average 20 points a month. My model allows for really bad months and really good months, as long as the average is 20 points a month, so two months in I am not worried.

During the month of March I was tracking over 15 systems, a lot of work, some for over two months. Out of all of those I was only betting two paid systems. One returned me 10.60 points while the other lost 4.91. The paid service that lost for the month actually refunded my monthly fee, what class.

So what does all this means?

It means I have a lot of posts and reviews to get ready over the next week.

The good news for me is that I will only be tracking about a quarter of the systems I monitored in March.

Here is an interesting fact, since February 23rd if you bet the fav until you won on UK races only you would be up 56 points. The rules are to bet the favourite, minimum bet 1 point, subsequent bets just enough to earn 1 point overall.

More about this later in the week.