March Madness is off to a slow start

No bets today.

Zippo, none!

It took everything in my soul not to bet.

So March Madness is off to a slow start.

This is how discipline works.

I have chosen three horse racing systems to use for the month of March. However I am still tracking other systems on paper.

With no picks from the chosen three it would have been very easy just to grab one from one of the others.

I didn’t.

February 2009 is done and I am up 20 Points

I deposited $200 at Betfair.com to test various horse racing systems for the month of February.

Tomorrow I will start to post my results with the various systems.

My bank at the end of today was exactly $400. I ended the day by betting a long-shot that would leave me up exactly 20 points if it did not pan out, and of course it did not.

My goal was to learn as much as possible and I was not worried about losing the $200. At one time I was above $700.

However, I wanted to get a few bad habits out of my system.

I picked random horses to lay, usually the third to fifth favoured horse. I got burned big time doing this.

I would bet undisciplined trying to pick which system would be the winner on the day.

I would think that the next bet is a sure thing based on the systems previous bets that day. I quickly learned that past results have no bearing on the next race. There is no symmetry in the horse racing world.

I learned that there are some out there who are very good at filtering past results to produce a horse racing system that looks good on paper but sucks big time. Of course these are the guys who usually sell their system for you to apply.

I learned that it is not easy to average 20 points a month.

So I deposited $300 in my Betfair account to start my official betting career with a bank of $700 (officially $695.50 due to cc fees).

I am going to bet like I have a $1,000 bank, that is 1 point equals $10.

At the end of every month I will revise my point value up or down based on results for the month.

For example, if I am up 20 points my next month’s point value will be $12.

Here is to betting discipline and a plan.

The pitfalls of a Horse Racing System owner

If you want to successfully bet the horses you need to be dispassionate and disciplined.

But what about those who actually run a horse racing system?

What happens if they go on a losing streak?

Your subscribers will be upset and want to jump ship.

You panic and start to tweak your system, only to make things worse.

They also need to be dispassionate and disciplined.

Small tweaks are ok, but they have to have faith in their system.

Losing streaks will occur and you need to ride it out.

Am I nuts!

No comments here yet, but this is a very new blog.

However someone did email me and told me I was nuts.

He explained that it is unrealistic to expect an average 20 point gain per month laying horses.

No horse racing system is acheiving such results!.

Ok, I can buy that.

But did he consider laying two or three systems that average 7 to 10 points per month?

I emailed him back with the insight.

The 20 Point Millionaire

Can a horse racing system really make you a millionaire in less than four years.

Absolutely!

The hard part is finding a system that consistently delivers 20 points a month.

Consider this.

You have a bank of $1,000.00 and you have divided it into 100 points.

You follow a value betting system that averages you 20 points per month.

At the end of four years you are a millionaire.

I created an excel spreadsheet where I plot out four years worth of betting with the following criteria:

1. Average 20 points per month
2. First month bet $10 per race (1 point)
3. Recalculate betting point each month based on 100 points

I then recalculated the spreadsheet over and over.

At the end of fours years I am always a millionaire.

I even devised a formula that could also give me negative results for the month.

However, whenever I averaged close to 20 points over the four years my bank always finished above one million dollars.

Sometimes a lot more.

Something to think about.