In Like a Lion, Out Like a Lamb, and April freagin Sucks!

Of course I am talking about the free Betfair Pirates tipping service.

I updated my review of their horse racing system so if you want to see the sad stats just click on the Reviews Tab above.

Luckily I do not bet their tips.

For me, I am just betting one tipping service this month and I am up 5.66 points. I will be doing a review of them at the end of the month as they have been very good to me. All I ask of a service is to average a net 5 points a month. Not a lot to ask.

This means that in the long run I am looking for 4 to 5 tipsters or systems that I can rely on. Some may lose for the month but as long as they are consistent and not too risky in their selections I will be happy. My goal is just to average 20 points a month.

Tomorrow I will be publishing my review of Max Redd’s service. If you have been following this blog you will know that I think Max lives in fantasy land when it comes to posting his results.

This month I have been monitoring the two Dodgy Systems by Paul Fowlie.

Dodgy One has been a loser since I purchased the system on February 18th. The system is positive so far in April so let’s hope this is a turning point. I have only been following the UK horse racing scene since the beginning of this year so I am not yet familiar enough with their seasonal trends. I am pulling for Paul because I like a guy who actually bets his own tips.

I only have access to Paul’s Tips for Dodgy Two, not the system itself. So far it has been a loser to the tune of minus 19 points for April based on what I would have bet. It is a system I hope Paul works the kinks out of as it does pick low cost favourites to lose, thus less risky. The problem is that he is picking too many races per day.

I am testing a new system that involves reading the form using four criteria. So far the system is showing a plus 15 points for April, rather impressive. I have high expectations of this system because the criteria make sense. If you follow a system where the criteria do not make logical sense, like betting on a horse to lose if the jockey has bad teeth, then the odds will catch up with you. A friend actually came up with the criteria for me. It is not based on back testing and filtering out results until you have a winner. I may eventually post the picks for the readers here.

I have lots of reviews from last month that I need to double check the results and stats before I publish them.

A final note.

Since February 23rd, if you bet the favourite in UK races, with a minimum bet of 1 point and subsequent bets to recoup any loses until you win with an overall 1 point for the day, you would be up 78 points after deducting the Betfair commission.

Of course this system can blow up on you in one day.

Manipulation of Horse Racing System results by well known Gambler

I have been tracking some horse racing systems and have been actually betting one that had an impressive three year plus history.

Here’s the rub though.

Since I have been tracking his system he is not reporting his results accurately.

First, he recommends both bets and lays at minimum or maximum prices.

He sends his recommendations out every morning and I place my bets within 15 minutes of receiving his email.

One day he recommends a 10 point lay at a maximum price. I have no problem placing and matching a bet below his recommended price.

The horse wins.

Next day he does not report the 10 point loss. He recommended a maximum price of 2.5, I managed to get 2. The Betfair SP was 2.9.

I emailed him and he responds that of course his results will differ from mine. He consults those who are paying for his service and based on averages if more than 50% do not get the bet placed he does not count it. He states that this also applies to winning bets.

Woa!!!!!!

If you think about this his posted results are not reliable.

In fact I believe the Betfair SP was his deciding factor

The services that just post lays use the SP to report their results. This makes sense.

However this gambler suggests to take his recommendations, place your bets and if they are not matched no big deal.

Given this strategy he has to include all bets if they could have been matched, not if some of his followers do not get their bets in time.

Right now he is reporting a positive 5 day gain of 6.12 points but I am suffering a -6.6 loss.

Not good.

Plus it totally invalidates his posted historical results.

The question is how many suggested bets has he not included.

The gambler in question, Max Redd.

Here is a quote from an email he sent me.

Another important point to note is that the results posted on the Results page are not my own personal figures, but a general consensus of bets matched by members.

In response to previous suggestions for a fair and accurate way to record the available prices on my selections, I have asked a group of long-term members to send me their results each day. Where a selection has been matched at my suggested price or better, by more than 50% of members, then this will appear on my results at the average price matched by those members. If only a small number of members, or indeed no-one gets matched at the advised price, then the selection will not appear on the results, whether it wins or loses.

So his results are not really his results but rather based on averages of the betting patterns of his followers.

Max Redd may know a lot about horse racing systems but he does not have a clue about how to report his results fairly.

His system requires that if his recommendations could have been matched from the time he recommends them up to race time then they have to be counted.

This is based on the fact that he recommends to place your bets at his recommended prices and then go and do something else.

Here is a quote from his website:

The good news is that you can make excellent profits by simply betting my selections at minimum advised prices. Log-in to your betting exchange account when you receive my daily message, and submit all your bets at your required prices. You can then leave all your bets to be matched, without having to sit at your PC screen all afternoon. Nothing could be simpler. Any bets that do not get matched will automatically be cancelled, leaving you only with good value bets.

Conclusion, buyer beware.

Horse Racing Tip Saturday Disaster

My goal is to find a horse racing system that can meet my goals, namely consistent profits, not overly risky, and possibly managed by a well known better.

I ended up picking 6 horse racing systems to monitor.

1. Paid service run by a well known gambler, win and lay bets
2. Free horse racing tip service with a paid upgrade, lay bets only
3. Paid service lay bets only
4. Free daily horse racing tip by well known website
5. Free daily horse racing tip by well known journalist
6. Horse racing system based on daily NAPs, lay bets only

Saturday betting was certainly interesting.

First, I made a really stupid error on one race and lost $130. Let’s just say you need to look at the rules governing how many horses place. I though the race had three places when it only had two. Live and learn.

My balance at Betfair.com is now $370.26 so I am only down in total $26 for the day. I was lucky to recover from my mistake.

So starting today I am sticking with just one horse racing system from the above list, specifically number 1.

This is where discipline comes in and proper stake management.

After just four days of betting I have achieved a 17 point increase assuming each point is $10.

Not bad for not knowing what I am doing.

My Horse Racing System Sucks

First, my horse racing system sucks!

Second, I know nothing about the United Kingdom horse racing scene.

In my previous posts a chance encounter with an English punter aroused my curiosity.

I registered with Betfair.com and have been using his daily horse racing tip that he gets from using the Factor 4 horse racing system.

However today I have not been able to hook up with him so I am sort off wandering around Betfair by myself lost.

I started the day at $141.50 went as high as $216.68 and am now currently at $165.19.

Remember, this is my second day of betting and I started with a stake of $98.50 (initial deposit of $100 less credit card fee).

So far that is a return of 68% over two days.

I started to fool around with trying to arbitrage my bets, that is have a bet structured that I can only win and not lose.

Here is an example:

2009-01-21 12:18 GB Wolv 21st Jan / 12:20 7f Hcap / A Big Sky Brewing Lay 8.08 10.00 Won 10.00 153.98
2009-01-21 11:59 GB Wolv 21st Jan / 12:20 7f Hcap / A Big Sky Brewing Back 10.78 10.00 Lost (10.00) 143.98

Why would I do this.

If Big Sky Brewing won I would have won around $90 on a $10 bet. But I was not very confident and in the end he did not win.

So as I was watching the board at Betfair I noticed that his odds were dropping and I could now place a lay bet. If he did win my combined bet would net me over $30 but if he lost I would break-even. Since I was not confident of my initial bet I went for it.

I was confident enough that he would place so I also placed a $10 bet and netted $11.80.

I did not have confidence because I was not using a horse racing system.

I lost big time on the 4:00 Musselburgh Race.

Here are the results:

4:00 – Musselburgh
3 Hunters Belt 16/1
10 Alvarado 17/2
2 Doc Wells 33/1

You can see that all long-shots placed and up to now I was making money placing the favourites or using the arbitrage trick.

As I write this I am waiting for the 8.50 Kempton race to start. Looking at the board I see another arbitrage opportunity but I only have a $10 bet netting $35 so I m going to let it ride. I have Greenwich Village based on a horse racing tip from the Betfair newsletter.

Good news, he won, so my ending balance today is $198.44, a 100% return on my money in two days.

So I guess I can say it still is a good day at the races even though my horse racing system sucks.

The Horse Racing Tip

As mentioned yesterday on day one of this blog I received a horse racing tip from a new friend I met while enjoying a beer and the scenery at a Pattaya Beer Bar in Thailand.

His horse racing tip: bet Majuro to lose in tomorrow’s race at Southwell.

So I opened an account at Betfair.com as he advised using the promo code BTE111.

With that code I could receive a free bet up to 25 pounds.

So here are the results:

2009-01-20 09:41 7028793276 2009-01-20 07:25 GB Sthl 20th Jan / 09:30 7f Hcap
Comm Charged 5% On Net winnings of CAD45 - - - (2.25) 141.25

2009-01-20 09:41 7028793275 2009-01-20 07:25 GB Sthl 20th Jan / 09:30 7f Hcap /
Nightjar Back 4.50 10.00 Won 35.00 143.50

2009-01-20 09:41 7028793276 2009-01-2007:25 GB Sthl 20th Jan / 09:30 7f Hcap /
Majuro Lay 2.68 10.00 Won 10.00 108.50

I deposited $100.00 Canadian and after all commissions and fees my balance is now $141.25

Because of the free $25 pound bet I did not follow proper betting form. I bet over 35% of my $100 stake on one race.

Not only did I lay down on Majuro (bet that the horse would lose) but I also bet on the next favourite to win, Nightjar.

All in all a good day at the races.

However I seriously violated safe betting rules by exposing so much of my stake on one race.

In a future post I will explore safe betting rules if you are serious about earning a second income using my suggested horse racing system.