The odd nature of betting the horses

Odds are funny things.

They do not care about you or me.

They only care about their destination.

They may take a detour once in awhile but they always end up where they are suppose to go.

To be lucky is just to be on the favourable detour, and believe it or not you do not want to be lucky.

To be lucky means you do not know what you are doing.

The successful gambler is never lucky or unlucky.  They just know the odds.

There are many horse racing systems out there but many, if not all, have the same thing in common.  They are just trend analysis.

They look at the past hoping to see the future.

They use criteria to filter current form cards based on the analysis of the past.

But let’s say that someone actually created a system to calculate the odds of a horse winning a particular race.

This system is like the cagey gambler who always seems to be one step ahead.

This system does not have to be perfect because we can add a fudge factor.

So how would this system work.

First, every race is analysed and odds are attached to each horse.  This analysis is methodical in that all horses are evaluated based on their abilities and past form compared to that of all of the other horses in the race.

Then with this truck load of odds you head down to your favourite bookie or logon to your favourite exchange.

And you watch and wait.

What are you waiting for?

You are waiting until a favourable opportunity presents itself.

If you like to bet a horse to win then you wait until the betting odds are greater than the odds calculated for a particular horse. This is where you may want to add a fudge factor just to be conservative.  The fudge factor prevents you from betting every race.

If you like to lay a horse, then just wait until the betting odds are less than your calculated odds.

If you always bet this way then in the long run you will be profitable.

Let’s say that you figure a horse has a 5/1 chance to win and the current betting odds is 9/1.  You have an opportunity.

Of course the odds are that the horse will lose but if you bet enough of these over time you will come out a head.

The better you are at identifying opportunities the more you will make.

The problem is that this system does not exist, or at least a system that can produce true odds.

The cagey professional gambler does exist and they are not telling you the odds that they know through experience.

What you are left with is a bunch of tipsters who are not making their money betting the horses, they are making their money from you.

Kind of makes you think, well at least it makes me think.